Volatile Markets & The Importance Of Discipline
We’ve always emphasized the importance of how investing in your employer sponsored retirement plan is for the long term. Recent examples of increased market volatility should help reinforce that message.
Example One: January 20, markets rose solidly throughout the day, with the Nasdaq, best-known for technology stocks, up nearly 2% at its highest point. However, the gains were all removed during a period of late selling.
Example Two: Just two business days later, on January 24, the situation was reverse. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of the largest U.S. companies was down by as much as 4% yet finished in positive territory after a late-day surge.
Examples like this highlight that for long-term investors, not paying attention to the day-to-day can be a wise strategy.
More Volatility Ahead?
It’s not hard to imagine more volatility ahead, along with the potential for losses in a stock market that low interest rates have fueled. It may not be possible to avoid the risks associated with the two biggest factors affecting the markets: accelerating inflation and an ongoing pandemic.
Given a high likelihood of increase volatility and potential market corrections maintaining an educated understanding that markets have always had volatility as well as both peaks and valleys will be important for all investors. Investors should also keep sight of that over time these inevitable corrections have given way to higher peaks.

Sources: Vanguard calculations, using data from Refinitiv DataStream through January 21, 2022. Data accessed on January 24, 2022.Notes: Intraday volatility is calculated as the daily range of trading prices ([high-low]/opening price) for the S&P 500 Index. Periods of extended volatility above historical averages have at times resulted in sharp losses during the period, as shown. The index value has also risen during periods of extended high volatility.
Embracing Balance And Discipline
Market Outlooks for 2022 remain guarded, though not bearish.
Long-term equity return outlooks will be influenced by how policymakers remove monetary support that had been required to withstand the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Fixed income is more optimistic, especially considering the difficult situation, although interest rates remain historically low.
Policymakers face a balancing act in the months ahead, one that could carry significant implications for economic growth, inflation, and investment returns. While investors may find their discipline challenged by markets that have approached or already entered corrections or falls of 10% or more from recent highs.
Our message for retirement investors: Maintain perspective, tune out the day-to-day noise that can lead to impulsive decisions, and if you know that is not an option for yourself it may be time to reevaluate your allocation and to better align it with your risk tolerance.
As always, we understand every situation may be different and you may have specific questions about your retirement investments or savings strategies. If you would like advice on either of these subjects, please email us at info@arcwood.com to set up a free one-on-one retirement review meeting.
Advisory Services through Arcwood Financial LLC. a registered Investment Advisory Firm. Arcwood Financial LLC., Arcwood Benefits Consulting, Inc. and Arcwood HR, LLC (dba Arcwood) are independent companies. Arcwood does not offer legal, tax or compliance advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. The performance of an index is not an exact representation of any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.
This content was created by Arcwood Financial and distributed to their plan sponsor clients for use with their plan populations. Any distribution to other groups or use without a client/advisor relationship is prohibited.
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Paying Off Debt Video Session
Brandon T. Oliver is a Managing Partner of Arcwood Financial LLC. a Registered Investment Advisor Firm, and an Arcwood Consulting firm. Brandon is an Investment Adviser Representative and currently holds his life and health licenses as well as the Certified Financial Planner (CFP®) designation. Brandon started working in the securities industry in 2005. Soon after developing his skills in the financial services arena Brandon lead the Orphaned Client Division at a regional broker dealer where he assisted clients across the country who no longer had representatives. From there he also began assisting in the recruitment and branch development of new advisors for the same broker dealer. At Arcwood Financial LLC, Brandon is a specialist on plan investment menu design, managed portfolios and the monitoring of the designated investment options, plan providers, participant education and committee governance. When not working, Brandon enjoys spending time with his wife Summer and son’s Hayden and Remy. They live in North Central Phoenix, Az.
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Savings & Budgeting Basics Video Session
There are numerous good reasons why everyone should create and stick to a budget. However, statistically speaking very few American’s utilize them. Today we would like to highlight a few key benefits creating a budget can provide as well as provide an instructional video and free template on how to create your first budget.
First, A Few Of The “Whys”
It Helps Ensure You Don’t Spend Money You Don’t Have. If you never create and stick to a budget, you will never see if your expenses outpace your income, or more likely, you will have no idea how much more you are already spending VS what you take home.
It Helps Lead to a Happier Retirement. Budgets are a major tool in planning for a future retirement. If you do not have a budget, you will never know exactly how much you have available each month to put towards savings, specifically retirement savings through your companies 401k plan. However, a budget can be the second most important step to retirement in addition to saving enough. It can show you exactly how much money you are going to need in retirement. It’s impossible to know how much you to save if you don’t first figure our how much you’re going to need.
It Helps You Prepare for Emergencies. If you are still within some of the first steps to getting your financial house in order you may not have created your emergency and contingency funds yet. In this case your budget should include a monthly expense to build your $1,000 emergency fund and then your contingency fund which consists of at least three to six months’ worth of living expenses. Guess what a budget also does? Let’s you know what “three to six months of expenses” are!
It Helps Shed Light on Bad Spending Habits. Building a budget will force you to take a close look at your spending habits. You will immediately notice what areas you are overspending in, what areas your expenses are higher than they should be compared to professional guidance and probably what spending is on things you don’t really need.
How To Make A Budget
There are a lot of good/free templates you can use to fill in the numbers for your expenses and income. For some an old-fashioned pen and paper to budget your money may be more in your comfort zone. For others it may be easier and more efficient to use an excel monthly budget spreadsheet or a budgeting app like Mint. These will all contain designated fields for income and expenses in various categories like housing, transportation, food, utilities, and savings. The major steps will include:
Gathering Your Financial Paperwork. Gathering things like bank statements, recent utility bills, paystubs, credit card bills as well as mortgage or auto loan statements will be imperative.
Calculate Your Income. This is probably the easiest step considering most of us know what we make, just not what we spend. Most budgets will ask for net income (take home pay after taxes, social security withholdings, health premiums, etc.)
Create and categorizing a list of Monthly Expenses. This is the budget, and you’ll want to be as precise as possible and try and account for all expenses for what you plan to spend for the next month. Still try to understand no budget is perfect and there will always be some changes and variables. For example: during the summer you AC bill will most likely be higher and in the winter your heating willing increase. Keep these things in mind. Therefore, you must do a new budget every month.
Compare. In any budget, the last step after you have gone through every section and accounted for every expense will be to compare these with your take home pay. Obviously, your income and expense columns should be equal. If your budget is less than your income this provides an opportunity to go back through the budget and increase areas such as savings, dedicating cash flow to pay down debt, increasing some form of discretionary spending. If your expenses are more than the amount of money you make you are spending beyond your means and will have to reduce or remove some expenses.
Starting a budget may seem tedious at first but the benefits listed here are just the tip of the iceberg. Seeing where you can free up cash flow for yourself, for your family, to eliminate debt and/or to save for your future dreams will give you more financial freedom than any other program or technique. So, what are you waiting for? Time to start budgeting!
Brandon T. Oliver is a Managing Partner of Arcwood Financial LLC. a Registered Investment Advisor Firm, and an Arcwood Consulting firm. Brandon is an Investment Adviser Representative and currently holds his life and health licenses as well as the Certified Financial Planner (CFP®) designation. Brandon started working in the securities industry in 2005. Soon after developing his skills in the financial services arena Brandon lead the Orphaned Client Division at a regional broker dealer where he assisted clients across the country who no longer had representatives. From there he also began assisting in the recruitment and branch development of new advisors for the same broker dealer. At Arcwood Financial LLC, Brandon is a specialist on plan investment menu design, managed portfolios and the monitoring of the designated investment options, plan providers, participant education and committee governance. When not working, Brandon enjoys spending time with his wife Summer and son’s Hayden and Remy. They live in North Central Phoenix, Az.